Global liquefied natural gas trade can still reach 2025 levels this year despite disruptions from the Middle East crisis, according to a new assessment from Shell. The ramp-up of new liquefaction capacity in North America, combined with improved performance at existing plants, has helped offset reduced supply from the conflict-ridden region. Slower import growth from Asia has also tempered demand, creating a counterbalance that Shell says may prevent a sharp market contraction.
Supply growth is being driven largely by new facilities coming online in the United States and Canada, which are adding significant volumes to a market that has been rattled by geopolitical instability. These projects are accelerating output just as older plants globally improve operational efficiency. Analysts note that the additional supply is critical for meeting what remains a structurally growing but uneven global appetite for LNG.
On the demand side, Asian buyers — traditionally the largest consumers — have pulled back on spot purchases amid milder weather and higher inventory levels. That moderation has eased competition for cargoes, particularly from the Atlantic Basin, and helped stabilize prices. Chinese imports have slowed notably, while India and other South Asian markets have also shown restraint.
The Middle East crisis continues to threaten key transit chokepoints and has idled some production capacity, but Shell's analysis suggests the market is absorbing the shock better than initially feared. The company did not specify which facilities or countries in the region were most affected. The long-term risk of further escalation remains, particularly if shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz face prolonged disruption.
A countervailing view holds that the market's apparent stability is fragile. Should a harsh winter in Asia or Europe drive a sudden scramble for supply, or if new North American capacity faces commissioning delays, the current equilibrium could unravel quickly. Shell's outlook, while measured, assumes no further deterioration in the Middle East and steady operational performance elsewhere — conditions that energy traders caution may not hold.