President Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the state's Republican Senate runoff on Tuesday, a day after early voting began. The move came after months of Senate Republicans urging Trump to back incumbent Sen. John Cornyn instead. Trump had signaled an endorsement would follow the March 3 primary and warned that the non-endorsed candidate should exit the race, but no such backing materialized at the time.
Why this matters: The president's decision faces significant pushback from MAGA allies who opposed a Cornyn endorsement. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and leadership-aligned super PACs have poured tens of millions of dollars into supporting Cornyn. The endorsements highlight a deepening rift within the party between establishment figures and Trump's base.
By the numbers: Cornyn led the March primary but failed to secure a majority, forcing the May 26 runoff. Polling suggests a tight race between the two Republicans. The eventual nominee will face Democratic candidate James Talarico, who has outpaced both Cornyn and Paxton in recent surveys and holds a substantial fundraising edge.
The big picture: Cook Political Report rates the Texas Senate seat as "likely Republican." Talarico's strong polling and war chest, however, pose a potential upset risk. The runoff winner will inherit a deeply competitive general election landscape in a traditionally red state.
What's next: Early voting concludes Friday, with Election Day set for May 26. The outcome will determine whether the GOP unites behind Paxton or faces a protracted intraparty battle that could weaken its general election chances.