Asia’s crude oil imports are expected to remain at multi-month lows in June, as constrained Middle Eastern flows and high prices for alternative supply continue to pressure the region. Kpler data, cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell, estimates June imports at just 20.71 million barrels per day (bpd), a figure that still trails the pre-war average of 26.79 million bpd seen in the three months before the Iran conflict began on February 28.
Demand continues to lag as refineries face elevated costs for spot cargoes and shipping disruptions emerging from key waterways. The gap between pre-war and current import levels represents roughly 6 million bpd of lost volume, underscoring a persistent supply squeeze that has reshaped trading flows across the continent.
Infrastructure constraints in export hubs and insurance hurdles for vessels transiting conflict zones have limited the ability of Asian buyers to secure cheaper barrels from the Middle East. This has forced refiners into pricier long-haul alternatives from the Atlantic Basin and the Americas, eroding margins and dampening throughput rates.
Geopolitically, the Iran war has fundamentally recalibrated crude trade routes, with nations like India and Japan diversifying away from the Gulf toward more stable—but costlier—sources. While a partial recovery from May's weak performance is evident, the absence of a ceasefire or meaningful sanctions relief suggests the current import trajectory will persist in the near term.
The sustained import deficit also pressures Asia's energy transition calculus. Higher feedstock costs reduce the competitiveness of petrochemicals and could slow downstream investment, even as the region seeks to balance immediate energy security with longer-term decarbonization goals.