Bitcoin is displaying a curious divergence: its price climbs, yet derivatives data signals persistent bearishness among traders. The 30-day cumulative funding rate on Binance sits around -4.5%, indicating many are positioned defensively or shorting the asset despite its upward momentum.
This pattern echoes the disbelief phase seen during previous recoveries, according to analyst Darkfost. When Bitcoin emerged from the 2022 bear market, Binance funding rates fell even deeper to nearly -7% before the trend reversed. The current negative rates suggest skepticism remains high among leveraged traders.
The 30-day cumulative metric reveals the duration and intensity of bearish positioning. While BTC price shows resilience, the persistent negative funding — often a contrarian signal — implies that a short squeeze could fuel further gains. Related liquidations have already occurred, with shorts caught offside as the asset hit $79,000.
If funding rates flip positive, it may signal a shift toward euphoria, historically a late-cycle indicator. Conversely, continued negativity could mean the rally lacks broad conviction, risking a pullback if spot demand fails to absorb selling. Traders are watching for a turn in sentiment.
Darkfost’s analysis underscores that the current setup is unusual but not unprecedented. The question is whether price action will eventually force bears to capitulate or whether skepticism proves warranted.