India is on track to import a record 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in June, according to preliminary vessel-tracking data from Kpler. Russian barrels now account for 53.5% of all Indian oil imports, driven by the ongoing Hormuz crisis and U.S. waivers on Moscow's crude. The surge underscores New Delhi's deepening reliance on discounted Russian supplies.
On the supply side, Iran is rushing to evacuate oil it was unable to push past a recent U.S. naval blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz. At least three supertankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels of Iranian crude have moved through the chokepoint. The rapid evacuation follows the lifting of the blockade and ongoing U.S.-Iran discussions on a framework for a lasting peace deal.
Infrastructure constraints are emerging as a bottleneck. India's refining capacity is already stretched, processing heavy Russian grades while plant turnarounds loom in the coming months. Storage facilities near major ports are nearing capacity, raising the risk of congestion if the record import pace continues through July.
Geopolitically, the dual flow of Russian and Iranian crude through the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping global energy trade routes. Western shippers and insurers remain wary of conflicting signals about the chokepoint's true openness, creating insurance premiums that could slow Iran's export recovery. Meanwhile, India's position as a buyer of both discounted Russian and potential Iranian barrels gives it rare leverage in global crude markets.
A counterargument holds that the record import flow may be temporary: if U.S.-Iran talks collapse and the blockade is reimposed, India could face supply disruptions, while a softening of global demand could reduce the need for Russian barrels. Additionally, the data from Kpler is preliminary and subject to revision, meaning final June figures may be lower than current estimates.