A new analysis from War on the Rocks contends the U.S. approach to North Korea is paralyzed by path dependency and is actively increasing risk rather than reducing it. The piece, published Tuesday, argues that with Kim Jong Un refusing to engage, the Trump administration faces an inescapable prospect: the legacy strategy must be abandoned in favor of a bolder pivot.
The article calls on Washington and Seoul to sharpen the choice for North Korea, making a deal enticing while simultaneously raising the stakes and demonstrating a credible willingness to back up that posture. The proposed shift includes a suggestion that the two allies could make a bold decision to put the goal of denuclearization itself on the table in a new framework.
The analysis signals growing frustration within policy circles over North Korea's continued silence and the perceived failure of past U.S. administrations to break a cycle of failed negotiations. It implies that the current standoff benefits Pyongyang, which has used diplomatic pauses to advance its weapons programs without making meaningful concessions.
Critics of such a pivot warn that offering too much upfront could be perceived as a sign of weakness, potentially emboldening North Korean demands. They note that previous attempts at engagement, including the 2018 Singapore summit, failed to produce a verifiable denuclearization agreement, and there is skepticism that the Kim regime will ever voluntarily surrender its nuclear arsenal.
The absence of a concrete policy shift from the White House leaves the proposition as a think-tank recommendation for now, but the timing—amid stalled talks and heightened regional tensions—gives the argument weight within national security circles.