A decade after the UK's referendum on EU membership, former EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said the country could rejoin the bloc on a "short" timeline if it chose to. His remarks were paired with a suggestion that Britain could also join a new European security and defence council. The comments come as both domestic and European observers question whether the next prime minister will seek closer ties or further distance from the EU than current leader Keir Starmer.
Polling expert John Curtice has argued that whoever becomes the next UK prime minister will have "plenty of political space" to move closer to Europe. He noted Labour's voter base is "three-quarters to four-fifths pro-Rejoin," suggesting the party has significant political opportunity to deepen relations with the bloc. Curtice added that Labour must overcome its "hang up about the 'Red Wall'" — the traditionally Labour-leaning constituencies that voted heavily for Brexit.
Public opinion has shifted markedly since the 2016 referendum, according to polling data cited by Curtice. The initial 52:48 split in favour of leaving has reversed to roughly 60:40 in favour of rejoining. He attributed this partly to Leave voters being less likely to insist on staying out compared to Remain voters' commitment to rejoining, along with a decade's worth of younger voters who were ineligible to participate in 2016.
These developments could reshape the UK's political landscape ahead of the next general election. A potential future prime minister, such as Labour's Andy Burnham, would face immediate pressure to either advance Starmer's EU reset or diverge from it significantly. Former UK Brexit negotiator David Frost has criticized Starmer's team for not "thinking hard enough about the choices and the processes" in handling EU relations.
Barnier's proposal for a European security and defence council signals that the EU may be open to new frameworks for cooperation with non-member states. However, the path to rejoining remains politically treacherous, with significant opposition from those who still support Brexit.