A new analysis from The Heritage Foundation warns that China's ambitions for dual-use maritime infrastructure pose a severe threat to America's military posture in the Pacific. Authors Brent Sadler and Allen Zhang argue that while the Pentagon closely monitors dual-use technology, it must now also focus on potential dual-use ports, shipyards, and other maritime facilities.
They contend that civilian infrastructure built under China's Belt and Road Initiative or other economic programs could be rapidly converted for military logistics and power projection. This capability would allow Beijing to support naval operations far from its shores, complicating U.S. planning and potentially undermining regional deterrence.
The report suggests this strategy is part of a broader Chinese effort to blur the lines between civilian and military domains, challenging traditional U.S. and allied responses. It calls for NATO and partner nations in the Indo-Pacific to develop new frameworks to counter this form of gray-zone competition, which is harder to attribute and counter than overt military buildups.
The authors do not provide a specific budget estimate for countering this threat but imply significant investment will be required in intelligence, surveillance, and diplomatic efforts. They suggest the cost of inaction—a degraded ability to project power and assure allies—would be far greater.
Historically, the U.S. has focused on countering specific weapons platforms. This analysis represents a shift toward viewing infrastructure itself as a central component of military competition, with long-term strategic risks if left unaddressed.