A government-commissioned report warns that Britain could see a 25% increase in young people not in education, employment, or training (Neets), reaching 1.25 million by the early 2030s. Alan Milburn, the review chair and former health secretary under Tony Blair, published the first 'diagnostic' report on Thursday, focusing on the root causes of the trend. He cautioned that the surge risks creating a 'lost generation' without immediate policy intervention.
The review, requested by Keir Starmer's government last year, comes amid rising Neet numbers across the UK. Milburn, once a Labour frontbencher and later chair of the Social Mobility Commission, is tasked with identifying factors behind the increase. A second report with policy recommendations is expected in the autumn.
Milburn noted that employers consistently raised concerns about the impact of minimum wage increases on hiring young people. 'No employer really wants to be paying poverty wages,' he said, but the higher wage floor has made it harder to bring younger workers on board. The report does not yet propose specific solutions, leaving that for the next phase.
The warning adds pressure on Starmer's government to balance wage policies with youth employment strategies. Critics fear that without targeted measures, the Neet population could strain social services and widen economic inequality. The autumn report will be closely watched for actionable proposals.
Some experts argue that minimum wage rises alone are not the primary driver, pointing instead to skills gaps and mental health issues among young people. The debate underscores the complexity of tackling long-term youth disengagement.