Shares of SpaceX hit the public markets on Friday in what is being called the biggest initial public offering of all time. Shadow trading markets are already pricing a debut pop of at least 35% for Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite and AI company, according to Bloomberg data.
The IPO represents a landmark moment for the space industry, offering retail and institutional investors their first chance to buy into the private rocket giant. Only Japan and Australia among Asia-Pacific nations provide direct retail access, The Japan Times reports, leaving many Asian investors seeking alternative ways to bet on the stock.
Major early backers stand to reap enormous gains. Founders Fund and Andreessen Horowitz are set to receive multi-billion dollar windfalls from the listing, according to Seeking Alpha. The sheer scale of the offering has drawn comparisons to the largest tech debuts, though SpaceX’s unique revenue mix—spanning launch services, Starlink satellite internet, and Starlink-based AI—complicates simple valuation.
Some analysts urge caution at the current price. Dhruv Maniktala of True North Advisors says his firm is positioning as sellers, arguing the valuation has already run ahead of fundamentals. On Bloomberg, Founder ETFs’ Michael Monaghan countered that SpaceX offers a rare “three-in-one” investment opportunity across rockets, satellites, and artificial intelligence.
The counter argument: With shadow markets indicating a 35% pop before any trade occurs, the stock may already be pricing in years of future growth. Skeptics warn that retail euphoria could inflate short-term pricing beyond what SpaceX’s current financials support, especially given the capital-intensive nature of its reusable rocket and Starlink expansion plans.