Voters in two Scottish constituencies are casting ballots today in Westminster by-elections that will serve as a major political barometer for both Labour and the SNP. The contests in Aberdeen South and the newly created seat of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry were triggered by the resignations of former SNP MPs.
The results will gauge public sentiment on several pressing issues, including the cost of living, NHS performance, and the pace of the SNP's push for a second independence referendum. With Labour currently holding a commanding lead in national opinion polls, a strong performance in these historically SNP-leaning seats could signal that Keir Starmer's party is poised to reclaim its former dominance in Scotland.
For the SNP, now led by John Swinney, the elections represent a crucial test of its ability to retain support after a period of internal turmoil and declining poll numbers. A loss in either seat would amplify questions about the party's electoral strategy and the viability of its independence platform in the short term. The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK are also fielding candidates.
Turnout is expected to be a key factor, with some analysts suggesting lower engagement could benefit the party with the most motivated base. Local campaigners have reported that doorstep conversations have been dominated by the economy and public services, with independence being a secondary concern for many voters.
Political observers view these by-elections as a critical early indicator of the political landscape ahead of an expected general election next year. A decisive win for Labour would bolster Starmer's narrative that his party is ready to govern, while a strong SNP hold could provide a lifeline for the embattled pro-independence movement.