The blockading of the Strait of Hormuz, once deemed unthinkable, paralyzed a fifth of global LNG and crude oil flows, inflicting significant economic pain on producers and consumers alike. In its aftermath, Middle Eastern states are racing to build pipeline infrastructure to ensure such a disruption never cripples energy markets again. Saudi Arabia’s pre-existing East-West pipeline has already proven its value as a critical alternative route.
Saudi Aramco is now pushing to expand the East-West pipeline’s capacity from 5 million barrels per day toward 7 million bpd, according to project documents. This would allow the kingdom to bypass the strait with nearly 70% of its current crude output. Meanwhile, the UAE is reviving plans for a second crude pipeline from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, seeking to double its bypass capacity to 3 million bpd. Iraq, dependent on southern export terminals, is exploring a pipeline link to Turkey through Kurdistan.
Capital expenditure on these projects is estimated at $15–20 billion over the next five years, with the Saudi expansion alone costing $4 billion. Construction could generate tens of thousands of engineering and construction jobs across the region. The timeline for full operational capacity ranges from 2027 to 2030, contingent on financing and political stability.
Geopolitically, the pivot to pipelines reshapes energy security dynamics. It reduces the strategic leverage Iran wields over global oil markets via the Strait of Hormuz. However, the new routes pass through volatile regions—Yemeni Houthi rebels have already threatened infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and Turkish-Iraqi relations remain fraught over Kurdish oil exports. Insurers are charging premiums up to 300% higher for pipeline projects in conflict zones.
Even with these investments, pipelines cannot fully replace the strait. Tankers carry roughly 17 million barrels per day through Hormuz, while planned pipeline capacity will cover only 10–12 million bpd by 2030. The International Energy Agency warns that a simultaneous crisis—such as a major pipeline sabotage alongside a strait closure—could still spike prices above $150 per barrel.