A new analysis from War on the Rocks revisits a 2022 prediction that Ukraine's resistance would blend conventional combat with insurgent-style tactics. Author Scott Sweetow originally argued that a tech-driven insurgency could emerge against Russian forces, and the retrospective now assesses how that forecast has held up after four years of war.
The piece suggests Ukraine currently operates more like an insurgency in key respects than a traditional state military. This assessment centers on the heavy reliance on drone strikes, hit-and-run operations, and decentralized command structures—hallmarks of asymmetric warfare that differ from conventional force-on-force engagements.
Allied military observers have taken note of these adaptive methods, though formal NATO doctrine still emphasizes conventional deterrence. The evolution raises questions about how partner nations should structure future training and equipment support for Ukrainian forces.
The analysis does not provide specific budget figures or procurement timelines, instead focusing on operational doctrine. It remains unclear how widely these insurgent characteristics apply across Ukraine's entire defense establishment or whether they are concentrated in specific brigades.
Counter-argument: Some military analysts argue that Ukraine's ability to conduct large-scale artillery duels and maintain defensive lines shows it remains a fundamentally conventional force, with insurgency elements playing a supplementary rather than defining role.