Shell, the world’s largest LNG trader, projects global demand for the fuel will surge 65% by 2050 from 2025 levels, propelled by growing consumption in South and Southeast Asia. The forecast comes in its annual LNG Outlook 2026, published Tuesday, which also notes that growth this year has been derailed by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
Last year, 422 million tons of LNG were traded globally. Initial expectations, including Shell’s own, anticipated a significant jump in trade during 2026. The Middle East conflict, however, has upended those forecasts by shutting in roughly a fifth of the world’s monthly LNG supply, pushing spot prices sharply higher.
The demand surge is anchored in Asian markets, where rapid industrialization and coal-to-gas switching are accelerating consumption. No specific volume targets for 2050 were provided beyond the percentage increase, and Shell did not break down regional demand projections by country in the outlook’s disclosed excerpts.
On the supply side, the crisis underscores the fragility of global gas trade routes, with the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint directly impacting flows. Shell’s outlook suggests that while long-term fundamentals remain bullish, near-term price volatility and geopolitical risk could deter final investment decisions on new liquefaction capacity.
The 65% demand growth scenario assumes a gradual resolution of current disruptions, but the report acknowledges that prolonged instability in the Middle East could materially alter the trajectory. Analysts have cautioned that higher spot prices may temper demand recovery in price-sensitive developing economies, particularly in South Asia, where affordability is already strained.